Are the Rockets back?
Three years removed from the James Harden era, the Houston Rockets are starting to show signs of life after a dormant past few seasons. The 2023-24 Rockets have been quite promising, earning more wins than they’ve had in any of the past three seasons, without even reaching the halfway point. GM Rafael Stone has done quite an impressive job over the past few offseasons infusing the roster with explosive young talent, while also adding a healthy amount of vets. Although the Rockets are not legitimate contenders this season, with a stacked young roster and a great group of vets, as well as a rising superstar in Alperen Sengun, the Rockets have seemingly produced an exciting young nucleus who could make them contenders for the foreseeable future.
To start, the Rockets have done an incredible job drafting over the past few years. To note a few, draft picks Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason have all shown flashes of their potential to be stalwart players in the NBA. The rookie Whitmore has been on a tear since getting an opportunity to play this season, putting up four 20-plus point games while shooting 48.1% from the field and 39.6% from deep. Moreover, 2nd year player Jabari Smith Jr. has shown excellent growth this season. After a rough rookie season shooting only 40.1% from the field and 30.7% from deep, he’s improved mightily in year two shooting 46.9% from the field and 37.6% from deep, while still scoring about 13 points per game. Beyond Smith Jr. and Whitmore’s production offensively, Eason and Thompson have also become impressive role-players for the Rockets on the defensive end. Eason, prior to his current leg injury, was averaging an efficient 9.8 points per game from the four spot off the bench, while also picking up 7 boards, 0.9 blocks and 1.4 steals a game. Moreover, the lottery pick Amen Thompson has shown glimpses of his immense potential, averaging an impressive 5.3 boards on just 18.8 minutes per game as a back-up point guard.
Along with this surplus of young talent, the Rockets have done a great job injecting the roster with a legitimate veteran presence. On JJ Redick’s Old Man and the Three Podcast, former Rocket Eric Gordon stated that a key factor contributing to Houston’s lack of success over the past few seasons was the lack of veteran players in the locker-room. In his opinion, veterans play a key role in the development stage of young talent, as the mentor-mentee relationships that manifests between vets and young players give these kids the opportunity to learn how to play the right way and what it takes to win, from someone who has lived their situation. The Rocket brass made a conscious effort this past offseason to fill this void by bringing in productive vets who have been a part of winning franchises in the past, as can be seen with the additions of Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, Fred Vanvleet and Jeff Green. All four players have played integral roles on championship contending teams and are still quite productive. Brooks, the youngest of the new vets, is a proven small forward who was a pivotal starter on the last two 50-win Grizzlies teams due to his high-level defense and ‘dawg’ mentality. He has brought this skillset to Houston and a little extra, as he is averaging a highly efficient 14.1 points per game on 45.3% from the field and 40.8% from three, with both percentages being career highs. Vanvleet, one of the more respected players in the league, won a championship in 2019 with the Raptors as a reserve guard, and later became a +19 point per game scorer over the past few years. With the Rockets, while he still has been productive as a scorer, his role as a facilitator seen through his average of 8.2 assists per game has been pivotal to the Rockets improvement this season. His experience and grasp of the game that he brings as their primary ball-handler has added structure to their offense, putting Houston’s young players in more advantageous situations offensively. Green is the oldest player on the team at 37, but is still productive in a limited role and will prove to be a key vet for the young guys in the locker room. Green won a Finals with Denver last season, an Eastern Conference Championship with Lebron in 2018, and appeared in the 2011 Western Conference Finals with KD and the Thunder. He’s been around the league for a long time and has gained invaluable experience with some of the best players and teams the NBA has ever seen, which should make him a great mentor for Houston’s young squad. Lastly, Steven Adams was just recently acquired by Houston from Memphis despite currently dealing with a season ending injury. While this injury could affect his play, Adams is only 30 years old and averaged 8.6 points, 11.5 boards and a block a game last season. The former star Center for the MVP Russ-led Thunder may be on the decline in his career, but you can’t underestimate the presence of a player who has experienced consistent playoff appearances throughout his career, and can still produce at an efficient level.
Nonetheless, without a superstar talent or even two in today’s NBA, it is nearly impossible to be a legitimate playoff contender, especially in a loaded West. Luckily, Houston has two rising stars in Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green who have the potential to ascend into superstar standing. Sengun, who many have compared to Nikola Jokic, has taken another major step this season, as he has seemingly become the Rockets go-to scorer with 21.2 points per game, up from 14.8 a year before. While he is not yet the superstar high-volume player that can give you +25 points and +10 boards on a nightly basis which they’ll need him to be, he’s only 21 years old, giving him plenty of time to develop an effective mid-range game, as well as improve his efficiency from deep, which could make him one of the most dominant scorers in the league. The highly explosive Jalen Green has also become an exciting player in the NBA. However, one knock on Green that should temper expectations on him becoming a superstar is his low efficiency as a scorer. Green has consistently shot sub-42% from the field and is currently shooting 31% from three this season, while adding very little on the defensive end. Though he is averaging 18.3 currently and averaged 22.1 the year before, the lack of efficiency is a significant issue that he will need to clean up as he continues to grow in the league. Still, like Sengun, he is quite young at only 22 years old and has displayed the ability to be a +20 point per game scorer in the league. If he can become a bit more efficient while scoring at this clip, the Rockets would have at the very least a formidable star to pair with their future superstar big-man in Sengun.
In this season alone, we have seen the rise of multiple homegrown teams in the Timberwolves and Thunder go from promising young teams to the current 1 and 2 seeds in the West. The Rockets, with the creation of a high-end supporting cast, a developing star in Jalen Green, and a potential superstar in Alperen Sengun, share a similar trajectory to these teams that have become the cream of the league. At the end of the day, their future success depends on Head Coach Ime Udoka’s ability to continue to cultivate a system that accentuates the elite skill sets of Sengun and Green, while putting their surplus of role-players in positions to complement these stars and be the most productive versions of themselves. Not to mention, GM Rafael Stone must also continue to add talent where he can, in order to complement the strong core they have. Nonetheless, the Rockets roster is in a great spot for future success, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Houston becomes a force in the West as early as next season.