The Bears’ Dilemma

Every off-season, a few front-office executives and coaches will make decisions that will alter the future of their franchise. In the NFL this offseason, General Manager Ryan Poles and Head Coach Matt Eberflus will be presented with this high magnitude decision again after seemingly hitting the lottery. The Chicago Bears for the 2nd year in a row due to a previous trade with the Carolina Panthers have locked up the 1st overall pick in the 2024 draft, with the cream of the class being potential superstar quarterback, Caleb Williams. The young prodigy has been vaunted as the best quarterback in college football over the past two seasons, who some have even compared to the ‘baby GOAT,’ Patrick Mahomes. However, after a surprisingly solid finish by the Bears current young signal-caller Justin Fields, this once ‘no-brainer’ of a decision has been made quite the dilemma. Still, from a long term point of view, with the hope of competing for a Super Bowl Championship in the near future as the objective, the choice of drafting Williams and moving on from Fields would still prove to be the best route. 

First and foremost, Justin Fields hasn’t done enough to prove he is capable of leading a team deep into the playoffs, let alone into the playoffs. Over his first three seasons, Fields has shown flashes of his supreme talent, but has clearly lacked consistency and success as a starter thus far. After this past season, Fields is now 10-28 with a woeful 60.3 career completion percentage that only peaked at 61.4 this past season, along with 30 interceptions in his young career. While the teams he’s played on during his first two seasons were pretty abysmal due to a lack of talented pass-catchers and serviceable offensive lineman, 2023 was a different story. Last offseason, Poles brought in one of the best receivers in the league in DJ Moore, drafted a high-end left tackle in Darnell Wright, and signed a big-time free agent in guard Nate Davis. Not to mention, defensively, he brought in some significant talent in Pro Bowler Tremaine Edmunds, linebacker TJ Edwards and edge rusher Demarcus Walker. However, while Fields wasn’t the only issue, the Bears again had an awful start going 1-5 with brutal losses to Green Bay and Tampa. Fields would settle in as the year waned on, but he only went 4-3 after that rough stretch, with a woeful 46.2 QBR over the whole season, as well as only 20 total touchdowns in 12 games. Not to mention, he was a complete no show in Green Bay during week 18 in what was probably the biggest game of his career to date, as the Bears only scored 9 points. At the end of the day, Fields has a ton of talent and his 1,143 yards rushing in 2022 shows just that. Nonetheless, a three year sample size doesn’t lie, and his poor production and inability to consistently win over this stretch has made it clear that he probably isn’t a franchise quarterback at this level. 

Beyond questions around Fields' ability, the Bear’s decision to pay him or not is imminent, which further makes Williams the more rational decision. This upcoming season will be the last of Fields’s deal, meaning having Justin Fields as a starting quarterback won’t be cheap. While the young signal caller has had his trouble, quarterbacks are expensive and one that has the ability to run for +1100 yards in a season will surely be too. As a result, let’s say they decide to commit to Fields by passing on Williams. Poles and the Bears would then have to decide whether or not to pick-up Fields' 5th year option this May, which would be worth $23.3 million for the season after this upcoming one.. Assuming they do so considering they passed on Williams, after next season, the Bears would then have to decide to either give Justin Fields a hefty second contract extension on top of the option, allow him to play in 2025 on that high option contract with the chance to franchise tag him for around the same money the next season, or just flat out cutting him and starting over. Obviously, if Fields has a poor season and definitively proves he is not the guy, the Bears front office would have failed which would lead to the inevitable firing of Ryan Poles and end of Justin Fields era in Chicago. But, if Fields does have a solid year, keeping him would cost upwards of $15-20 million per year going forward on a long or short term deal. In this case, it makes it quite difficult for Poles to continue to bring in elite talent around Fields due to his high cap hit, which they will need to do if they are to improve from 7-10. On the other hand, if they draft Williams and flip Fields for a draft pick, the Bears would then have four seasons of rookie deal money going to the quarterback position. This would in turn allow them great financial flexibility to build on the talent they’ve already brought in towards producing a Super Bowl level roster in the next year or two. So, unless Poles and the Bears brass believe they can win a Super Bowl with Fields in 2024, it’s probably not financially smart to pass on Williams in order to break the bank for Fields. 

Lastly, Caleb Williams seems to be no joke and is considered to have the potential to be one of the best in the league. Williams has been considered one of the most valuable players in all of college football over the last two seasons and is the unanimous best player in this year's draft. During a recent podcast on CBS Sports, former Vikings GM Rick Spielman stated that he would take Caleb over every single one of the last first overall picks since Andrew Luck's of the 2012 draft. Moreover, well-respected NFL Draft Analyst Mel Kiper has Caleb down as his number one player in the draft, stating he would take Williams if he was making the decision for the Bears. The stats further back up this high praise. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams has earned a +90 offensive rating in each of his three seasons starting. Moreover, he has scored 93 touchdowns and thrown only 10 interceptions, with a +66.6 completion percentage and over 300 yards per game in the last two seasons. If past drafts have taught us anything, it’s that you never really know how a player is going to pan out until they get in the building. Nonetheless, Chicago has a shot at a potential generational player at the most important position, which doesn’t come around very often.

This decision will make or break the career of Ryan Poles and will have sizable implications for the future of the Chicago Bears. Yet, the right move seems quite clear considering Fields’s underwhelming career thus far, the financial commitment he will demand in the near future, as well as the sheer potential of Caleb Williams. Justin Fields is a great talent, but he hasn’t done anything to prove he could be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. On the flip side, Williams is also a great talent who is projected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league with the jury still out. If you take possible loyalty towards Fields out of it, the decision is crystal clear.