The Up and Coming Orioles
In 2022, the Baltimore Orioles drastically exceeded the expectations set upon them. In 2018, the Orioles finished with 47 wins, fifth in the East and the worst in baseball. In 2019, the Orioles finished with a similar record: 54 wins, fifth once again. In 2021, the Orioles finished with 52 wins, fifth for a third straight year. Year after year, Baltimore was the worst team in the American League and possibly even the worst in baseball.
In 2022, most projections predicted that the Orioles would improve upon their abysmal 52 wins and finish with about 70 wins. However, in 2022, the Orioles won 83 games, shocking the baseball world, finishing in fourth place. For the first time in six years, the Orioles were again contenders to make the postseason into September. Although 83 wins were not enough to clinch a playoff spot, it was still impressive for a team expected to fall far short of playoff contention and a team that, on paper, was one of the worst in baseball.
The Orioles' success in 2022 was primarily due to young and generational talent who broke out. Foremost, rookie catcher Adley Rutschman was the first overall pick in the 2019 draft and had much hype coming into the major leagues. Many prospects struggled initially, including many star players, though this was not true for Adley. Rutschman broke out last season with 113 games behind the plate, an impressive .806 OPS, and 133 wRC+, finishing as the runner-up for the Rookie of the Year award after Julio Rodriguez.
Additionally, a fellow top prospect and third baseman Gunnar Henderson was called up in 2022, showed promise in 34 games, and is the frontrunner to win the Rookie of the Year award this season in 2023. Further, right fielder Anthony Santander recorded a 120 wRC+, led the team with 33 home runs and was consistent throughout the year. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle and left fielder Austin Hays, among others, also had solid seasons and contributed to the Orioles' offense success, which improved significantly in 2022 compared to past seasons.
The Orioles' offense was decent in 2022, as many players broke out. However, Baltimore finished with a team wRC+ of 99 and a team fWAR of 19.0, both 17th among all teams in baseball, about average among all teams, though still a significant improvement compared to 2021. The Orioles' rotation was similar to their offense, as Baltimore finished with an ERA of 3.97, 14th among all teams, and an fWAR of 11.9, 19th among all teams. Although the Orioles' rotation was decent, it is not led by any star pitchers, unlike other contenders, which is undoubtedly a concern for Baltimore.
However, on the other hand, the Orioles' bullpen was a drastically different story in 2022. The Orioles' bullpen was among the best a year ago, with an ERA of 3.49, ninth among all teams, and team fWAR of 4.7, tenth among all teams. In particular, closer Felix Bautista broke out in 2022 with an ERA of 2.19 and a WAR of 1.4 in 65.2 innings. Further, Bryan Baker, Cionel Perez, and others had solid seasons for Baltimore a year ago. Regardless, the bullpen will undoubtedly play a prominent role in 2023 and will remain one of the best pens in the game.
This year, the Orioles have a lot of hype surrounding their roster. The Orioles have not made the playoffs since 2016 and have been among the worst teams in baseball since 2017. Although the O's face an uphill battle, there is a solid chance that Baltimore will end their postseason drought this season or, at worst, will be a postseason contender. The Orioles have many top prospects ready to make an impact at the major league level who will play a significant role this season, including starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, third baseman Gunnar Henderson, and outfielder Colton Cowser.
The Orioles certainly have a lot of hype, though there is reason for concern. First, the Orioles' rotation lacks a true ace and lags behind many other contenders in the American League. Second, the Orioles' roster is less balanced than other teams in both leagues and contains many holes. Finally and most importantly, the American League East is a strong division and the best in baseball, as every team is a postseason contender and is decent. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are the frontrunners to win the division. The Yankees finished first and the Blue Jays second a year ago and have only added to their talented rosters. The Tampa Bay Rays are also a solid team with many talented players throughout their roster, and importantly, as of Thursday, the Rays are 13-0. The Red Sox are not good right now, though they have potential and can become contenders if conditions are right.
The Orioles certainly have potential in 2023 and could improve upon their impressive 2022 season, though it is unclear whether or not they will be good enough to make the playoffs for a second straight season. The Orioles largely resemble the 2016 Houston Astros, an upcoming team at the time, though they missed out because they did not have enough pieces. In 2023, I predict, the Baltimore Orioles will narrowly miss the playoffs, as they are still behind other teams in the American League, though it is certainly possible they will make the playoffs. The Orioles have many vital pieces though they need more to overtake other contenders in the American League. Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs or not, it will be a fascinating season to watch.