NBA Playoff Picture
Almost six months ago, the NBA was ramping up to begin the 2022-23 season. Everyone had their own expectations regarding key players and the ability for teams to build off of their 2021-22 success, or question if teams had done enough in the offseason to improve from the previous season. With the last regular season games just a week away on April 9, it is time to start focusing on what teams have had their eyes set on all season: the playoffs.
Going into this 2022-23 NBA season, the Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Phoenix Suns had the highest odds to win the championship. Much of these odds were based on their performances over the past few years. In 2022, the Warriors defeated the Celtics in a 4-2 series to win the championship. Along with Golden State and Boston, Milwaukee and Phoenix had also been in the finals in the last two seasons. Despite everything that occurred during this season, all six of these teams have a chance at the ring this year.
Before the playoffs start, the 7th-10th seeds in each conference must compete in the play-in tournament. What began during the bubble season in 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the play-in tournament has continued to be a part of the journey to the coveted NBA championship. These games will determine the 7th and 8th seeds in each conference for the playoffs. This play-in tournament will begin on April 11, shortly after the end of the regular season. The format of this tournament is similar to the first two rounds of a four-team playoff in the Page-McIntyre system. The 7th and 8th seeded teams will play one game and the winning team advances into the playoffs, while the losing team plays the winner of the 9th and 10th seed game. The winner of this game becomes the 8th seed in the playoffs. Over the course of April 11-14, three games will be played in each conference involving four teams, with only two earning a spot in the postseason. The process is the same for both the Eastern and Western conferences.
The top six teams in each conference will forgo the play-in tournament and begin their postseason hopes in the first round of the playoffs. The playoffs are played in four rounds with seven games in each series, where each series is played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. This means that the team with home-court advantage﹘the team with the higher regular season record﹘will host games 1,2,5,and 7; and their opponent will host games 3,4, and 6. Once one team wins four games, the series is over and the winning team moves to the next round and the losing team is eliminated from the playoffs.
As of 3/28, only five teams in the league have clinched their spot in the playoffs. In the Western conference, the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies have secured their position as a top six team in the conference. Likewise, the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched their position as a top six team in the Eastern conference. It will come down to the last games to determine which teams will finish in the top six in each conference, especially the Western conference where there is just a difference of 3.5 games separating the 4th seed and the 11th seed.
The Dallas Mavericks are in this 11th spot, just out of the play-in tournament if it were to start on 3/28. All eyes are on Dallas as they would be a challenge for any team if they were to make it through to the playoffs. With two of the most prolific isolation scorers in the league, in Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, Dallas may be able to fight their way into the play-in tournament and into the playoffs. However, to do so, Dončić’s left thigh strain has to heal, Irving has to be more productive, and something needs to be done to turn around their defense that has consistently been one of the weakest in the league.
With a 3.5 game lead ahead of the 6th seed and having the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the Eastern conference, it looks like the New York Knicks will secure a spot in the top six, leaving one more spot open in the playoffs. The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat are going toe to toe to secure the 6th spot in the conference. In order to earn this spot, the Heat need to get more help around Jimmy Butler and not slip back into their inconsistent play. The Nets are currently clinging onto the 6th pick and may have to rely on the strong performances from Mikal Bridges if they want to stay out of the play-in tournament.
As arguably the most dominant and hottest team since the trade deadline in the league, the Bucks should have no problem in the first round of the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, a very likely 2023 MVP finalist, has once again led his team to a successful regular season. With players like Khris Middleton, who is starting to look like his old self after an injury-plagued season, and Brook Lopez, a possible Defensive Player of the Year recipient, the Bucks have plenty of help around their star-player to make it far this postseason.
Neither conference has their top six team set, so teams will have to compete for a playoff spot. And if teams already have their ticket punched to the playoffs, they must battle to try and better their seeding in order to have an easier path to the championship. The 2023 NBA Finals will begin on June 1, and run until June 18, at the latest. Anything can happen in these upcoming games and in the playoffs. Teams will need to get hot at the right times if they want a chance of being crowned champions by the middle of June.