3-Team Struggle: The 2023 NL East Race
Going into 2023, the National League East division race will undoubtedly be very close. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all well-rounded, and there is a case to be made for each team. None should be discounted, as each has its strengths and weaknesses.
In 2022, the National League East race was a competitive race between two of the best teams in baseball, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. The Mets led the division from the onset of the season, which was as large as 10.5 games in June and 7 games in August. The Mets' lead shrank to 2 games in late September, just in time for a three-game series against the Braves. The Braves went on to sweep the Mets in the series, tying the teams at 101 games apiece. The Braves took the division title due to the tiebreaker, barely winning the season series, 10 games to 9. Another noticeable team in the National League East was the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies had a lot of hype going into the 2022 season, though they were highly disappointing through the first third of the season. Manager Joe Girardi was fired, and the Phillies came back to win 87 games in the end, enough to clinch the sixth Wild Card spot, beating out the Milwaukee Brewers by a single game.
In the playoffs, the Mets took on the Padres in the new Wild Card series, a best-of-three matchup at Citi Field, and were clear favorites, though they lost the series 2 games to 1. The Phillies swept the Cardinals and moved on to the Division Series, where they defeated the Braves. The Phillies went on to win the National League Championship Series against the San Diego Padres. Although they did fall to the Houston Astros in the World Series, their postseason performance was noteworthy and closely resembled the Washington Nationals' 2019 postseason run.
Now, let’s compare each team’s roster. First, let's start with the New York Mets. The Mets' lineup is led by star shortstop Francisco Lindor, first baseman Pete Alonso, second baseman Jeff McNeil, and right fielder Starling Marte. In addition, during the offseason, the Mets re-signed center fielder Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year mega deal. Their pitching staff is led by the two-headed monster of future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and newly signed Justin Verlander, who replaced long-time ace Jacob deGrom in free agency. Need not forget star closer Edwin Diaz, the best in baseball.
The Mets have a lot of hype, and there is a lot of reason to choose them as the favorite to win the NL East. The Mets' lineup is arguably the most well-rounded, with star power throughout their roster. However, there is a reason for concern. The Mets roster is very old. Scherzer and Verlander are nearing forty, and significant regression is a distinct possibility for both, if not expected. Further, the Mets' lineup is nearly identical to the team that failed to clinch the division and get past the Wild Card series.
Next, the Atlanta Braves. The Braves lineup is led by star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., First baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Austin Riley, and of course, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, center fielder Michael Harris II. The Braves rotation is solid, led by lefty Max Fried and flame-throwing phenom Spencer Strider. The club lost shortstop Dansby Swanson in free agency, though they added catcher Sean Murphy through a three-team trade with the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers.
The Braves retained most of their roster, which won the division in 2022 and a world series title a year before in 2021. There is little reason to discount the Braves, who have won the division title for five straight seasons. However, there is some concern: the Braves lineup is top-heavy and is not nearly as deep as the Mets. The loss of Dansby Swanson will hurt and force the Braves to rely on young and unproven players with little major league experience, which worked with Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. Still, it is unclear whether this strategy will succeed in 2023 with Vaughn Grissom.
Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are quickly counted out because they finished 14 games behind the Mets and Braves in 2022. However, they should not be counted out, partly because they made it to the World Series, but also because their roster is robust. The Phillies are led by star Designated Hitter Bryce Harper, Left Fielder Kyle Schwarber, and Catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies were big offseason winners, signing star Shortstop Trea Turner to a massive 11-year contract. Further, Right Fielder Nick Castellanos had a down year in 2022 and is primed to bounce back in 2023. The Phillies rotation is also strong, led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, which proved crucial in the Phillies' "Red October" in 2022.
The Phillies are underrated and have a case to win the division in 2023, because the Phillies have many star players who are among the best in baseball. There is cause for concern as well. Bryce Harper is coming off of a significant injury and will be out until May or June at the earliest, and there are uncertainties regarding what version of Harper will be present when he returns. Additionally, the lineup and rotation are top-heavy, but it is unclear whether either is deep enough to overtake the Mets and Braves.
Which team will take the division title in 2023? The Atlanta Braves are my pick to win the NL East in 2023. It isn't easy to bet against the team that has won it for five straight years. The Braves' rotation and bullpen are solid and consistent, unlike the Mets and Phillies, which contain a lot of risks. The Mets' lineup is better, though the Braves' lineup is strong enough, even without Dansby. As a Mets fan, I would like to pick the Mets, though the Braves are my pick to win the East.