Baseball's Winter Shakeup: MLB Free Agency 2023
While the other major sports are in the midst of their seasons, Major League Baseball can still steal the spotlight. MLB free agency opened on November 10th and a couple hundred players will find new homes before the start of Spring Training on February 24, 2023. There is an abundance of talent in the free agent pool and each top tier signing will steer headlines back to MLB. Free agency in baseball is much different than in the other major sports being that each player’s contract situation is tied to their “service time.” Service time is calculated using the number of days that a player is on a MLB roster, with 172 days, out of 187 in a season, equaling one year. Once a player reaches six years of service time they become a free agent, unless they had previously signed a contract extension. Most superstar players only reach free agency once in their prime, although there are exceptions, like former Astros and Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. Let’s take a look at the seven notable free agents, their best fits, and projected contracts.
Aaron Judge – The free agent list is topped by the reigning AL MVP, who set the non-steroid record for home runs in a season in 2022. Unlike most free agents, it’s tough to see Judge signing anywhere but the New York Yankees or San Francisco Giants. Judge has already flown out to the Bay Area, where they’d give him around an 8 year, $330 million deal for him to his childhood state. The Yankees, well known for their massive payroll, won’t lose a bidding war, but it might not come down to that. The Giants had a disappointing 2022, one season removed from a shocking 107 win campaign, and Judge would put them right back on track.
Trea Turner – Arguably the best of a loaded shortstop class, the speedy Turner began his career with the Washington Nationals before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the 2021 season. His best fits have been with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, and Chicago Cubs. The Cubs General Manager, Jed Hoyer, will finally get the green light to spend really big and push the Northsiders firmly into the playoff race, and it could happen here with a 8 year, $285 million dollar deal. Signing a shortstop would push current star Nico Hoerner to a different position, but Turner would make any team better, and the Cubs should ignore positional needs and make a huge investment.
Carlos Correa – A year younger than Turner, and one of the most consistent players in the league today. Correa signed a short deal with the Twins last offseason and opted out after one fairly successful season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are likely to be in on Correa, along with the Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, and Chicago Cubs. The Orioles are the one to watch, not just for Correa, but for any of the big name shortstops. The O’s didn’t make the playoffs in 2022, but they were the most improved team in the league and are projected to be a championship contender for years to come. At some point, they need to spend some money, as they currently sit second-to-last in team payroll. Correa would command around an 8 year, $275 million dollar contract. The Orioles desperately need pitching, but they have the best farm system in baseball . If they’re in the playoff hunt at the all-star break, they can trade one of their many middle infield prospects for some starting pitching. They’d also be well served to pick up one of the younger free agent pitchers on a reasonable, medium-term deal.
Jacob DeGrom – The two-time Cy Young award winner is dominant every time he steps on the mound. Recently, he rarely ever makes it to the field. He averaged about 30 starts per year before 2020 but injuries have forced him to less than half of that number since. It’s not difficult to imagine him re-signing with the New York Mets, but the Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Atlanta Braves would all be good spots for DeGrom. Texas should be the ones to take the gamble a year after spending big in free agency and finishing 68-94 anyway. They ranked in the bottom 10 in team ERA last year and if they pass up the chance to sign the future Hall of Famer, they’ll see the years run out on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien without sniffing the playoffs. Do they give DeGrom $45-50 million per year, or sign a couple of more affordable starting pitchers? Either way, they need to be more active this winter.
Justin Verlander – Typically, 39 year olds don’t play the best baseball of their career, but Verlander is the exception, posting a 1.75 ERA and winning the AL Cy Young and the World Series with the Astros. Had he struggled, he might be considering retirement, but instead he’s likely to get a multi-year deal into his 40s. Verlander could be convinced to join the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, or Atlanta Braves, but it’s hard to see a world where he doesn’t stay in Houston. Verlander would probably be happy to “settle” for a 3 year contract, earning $35 million per year. In today’s MLB, that’s a slight discount, but Verlander would be happy to settle for it to stay in Houston. It’s tough to see him moving at the age of 40, especially considering he’s won two championships with the controversial franchise. The Astros will probably be American League favorites once again.
Xander Bogaerts – The four time all-star opted out of the final 3 years of his deal with the Red Sox to become a free agent for the first time. Despite playing at shortstop, Bogaerts was best known for an elite bat and average glove. Last season, however, his hitting numbers dropped a bit while his defensive stats soared. Bogaerts, like most of the top shortstops, has plenty of potential landing spots, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, and St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers have to make their splash somewhere. They’re on the best fits list for most players for a reason – they love to spend on superstars. If they miss out on the top two shortstops, the Dodgers will take a very capable consolation in Bogaerts. He’d command less money than the others, somewhere around $200 million for 7 years. In LA, he’d reunite with former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts, and the Dodgers would remain favorites in a top-heavy NL West.
Kodai Senga – A 102 mph fastball attracts attention, no matter where it is. Senga played his 2022 with the SoftBank Hawks in Japan, sporting a 1.94 ERA and prompting him to enter the MLB free agent pool. He reportedly wants to play for a contender in a sizable market, and the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees offer him the best chance to do just that. If the Cubs do end up signing Turner, or any of the top shortstops, it might just be enough to convince Senga to pitch at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have history with Japan – fan-favorite Kosuke Fukodome signed there about a decade ago and they signed impressive rookie Seiya Suzuki from Japan just a year ago. An identical 5 year, $85 million dollar contract would probably get the job done here.
There is plenty of talent beyond those seven, including SS Dansby Swanson, SP Carlos Rodon, SP Clayton Kershaw, and C Willson Contreras. Some players will take a long time to make a decision, but the majority of them should find a new home by the end of Winter Meetings on December 7, 2022. GMs and agents convene in San Diego and make league-altering deals. The defending champion Houston Astros have already signed former AL MVP Jose Abreu, will they spend more in hopes of a repeat? Will the Orioles finally complete their rebuild? Can the Cubs get back into the spotlight? How much money will the Dodgers and Yankees spend to try to remain atop their divisions? We’ll have plenty of answers on how the 2023 season will unfold before a game is played thanks to the chaos of MLB free agency.